Julian Rawle, a submarine cable specialist and principal at Julian Rawle Consulting, advises against jumping to conclusions about the incidents, which have coincided with the detention of a Chinese vessel and suspicions of Russian involvement.
“Much is just speculation at this time,” Rawle told Capacity. “There’s a responsibility on the media to be a little more careful,” Rawle said referring to several media reports that attributed blame to Russia.
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“Yes, it’s a possibility that the Russians or the Chinese have deliberately gone out to damage a cable, but there are 500 operational commercial cables globally, and around 300 breaks occur annually.
“The probability is that this was an accident, like a ship dragging its anchor.”
Reports have highlighted erratic manoeuvres by two vessels, the Chinese-flagged Yiping 3 and the Magic Lady, in the vicinity of the cuts.
Rawle suggests their unusual patterns—tracked via the AIS satellite system—may point to accidental entanglements. “It’s not uncommon for ships to make erratic manoeuvres when trying to untangle themselves from cables.”
No evidence of a broader sabotage pattern
Despite the high-profile nature of these incidents, Rawle dismissed claims of a coordinated attack.
“There’s no evidence of a pattern. Gas pipelines and fibre optic cables are entirely different infrastructures. References to the Nord Stream explosion muddy the waters.”
The expert also stressed the difficulty of deliberate sabotage. “Cables can shift due to currents and tides, making them hard to locate. A ship searching for one could spend days dragging and grapnel and risk detection.”
Improved safeguards and technologies
Efforts to protect cables include UN laws, local regulations, and emerging technologies like DAS (Distributed Acoustic Sensing) and other cable sensing technologies, and smart cables. Most cable damage still occurs in shallow waters and results from fishing gear or anchors.
Rawle concluded: “This Baltic Sea incident should be monitored closely, but let’s wait for hard evidence. Until then, avoid jumping to conclusions.”
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