Short-term measures, such as blocking or charging a premium for third-party VoIP services, are unlikely to address the issue in a sustainable manner.
Over-the-top players are continuing to launch new services and integrate applications, while operators are largely in the early trial stage. Consumer demand is difficult to predict, as pricing has played a major role in the adoption of mobile VoIP services to date.
Analysys Mason has adopted a scenario-based approach to help players frame their responses and engage with longer-term market developments.
It has forecast each scenario in terms of its impact on total mobile revenue and traffic, and in terms of the revenue splits between operators and third parties.
These scenarios include: ‘married to my operator’, a long-term, trusted relationship with the operator, where customers use their existing operator for their communications services; ‘dating’, where customers use a combination of the best services available; and ‘going steady with Google’, where customers shift their service spend to a company with an advanced suite of communication services.
