The Capacity Media 2024 predictions roundup

Here, we take a look at various forecasts related to cybersecurity, wireless networking, satellite technology, private networks, network infrastructure, and digital divides (AI is a topic all by itself, watch this space!...)

Steven Carlini, Vice President of Innovation and Data Center at Schneider Electric

Many data centre designers and operators are moving more toward the capability of operating at a severely reduced demand side energy consumption rate, or being entirely self-sufficient for sustained periods. This can be achieved through various means, but sometimes it can be as simple as using a greener alternative to diesel in existing generators, such as hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO), but extending to full microgrid operation.

A key characteristic of microgrids is that they can operate either independently of a wider, national grid, or collaboratively with it and other microgrids. When operating collaboratively under an electricity trading scheme often governed by smart contracts, data centres can leverage their critical power infrastructure to provide grid balancing services which are essential when high levels of variable renewable energy (VRE) sources are employed.

If the world is to achieve the tripling of renewable energy solutions used in grids globally, then the speed of incorporation of such sources will be ramped up significantly towards 2030.

The digital management systems, such as DCIM, critical power infrastructure, and the ability to function as a microgrid with energy flows in both directions, will allow data centre designers, owners, and operators, to facilitate a an accelerated transition to renewables, and particularly VREs, that will see those ambitions achieved.

Loudon Blair, Senior Director of Corporate Strategy, Ciena

The ongoing surge in demand for cloud, AI and IoT services is driving hyperscalers to scale out their data centre presence across the globe. Connecting these data centers and transporting the information across the planet are approximately 400 undersea cables currently handling an estimated 98% of the world's internet traffic.

The hyperscalers are responsible for an increase in subsea cables, taking matters into their own hands to reliably support the influx of data their services are generating.

In 2024, there will be no let-off in subsea cable development. Traditional wholesale subsea cable providers, who once dominated the subsea cable landscape, will also be looking to ensure that their role in this ecosystem is not diminished further.

As a result, we can expect to see new technology innovations in subsea infrastructure as hyperscalers and wholesale providers not only look to increase the scale of their networks, but simultaneously reduce power, and improve capacity and intelligence.

Aaron Werley, VP, Technology at Zayo

In 2024, the communications infrastructure sector is set for a game-changing shift with the increased adoption of 400G ZR and ZR+ pluggable technology. These cost-effective solutions enable high-capacity, long-distance connections, particularly in metropolitan areas over dark fiber, further fueling demand for dark fiber services.

We also anticipate a significant shift towards the increasing ubiquity of IPv6 in enterprise networks. The longstanding call for the transition from IPv4 to IPv6 is finally gaining traction as concerns over IPv4 scarcity grow. We’ll see this transition not only in internet connectivity but also within LANs. IPv6 isn’t new, but its significant adoption in 2024 will make it a prominent technology in the communications landscape.

Aaron Werley, VP, Technology at Zayo

Liz Centoni, Executive Vice President Chief Strategy Officer & GM, Applications at Cisco

As new threats emerge in 2024, blurring the lines between IT and security responsibilities, there is an opportunity to enhance organisational resilience by converging IT and security teams within enterprises.

Traditionally operating in separate silos, these teams are finding their objectives and daily operations increasingly intertwined. This shift is driven not only by the rapid advancement of technology but also by the evolving landscape of security risks that directly impact IT infrastructure.

This convergence is particularly timely and necessary as singular threats now simultaneously target both infrastructure and security, demanding a unified response.

By fostering closer collaboration, sharing technologies and platforms, these once-disparate teams can combine their expertise to bolster defences against sophisticated cyber threats.

The advent of new cybersecurity platforms, tailored specifically for IT teams, is a testament to this trend. These platforms are designed to seamlessly integrate with IT operations, providing real-time insights and automated responses to security incidents, thereby reducing the response time and enhancing overall security posture.

SMS becomes the new playground for fraudsters

Katia Gonzalez, Head of Fraud Protection Security and Analytics, BICS

Robotexts are on track to overtake robocalls in 2024 as one of the biggest threats facing telcos. At the same time, Artificially Inflated Traffic (AIT) is targeting enterprises and end-users. These fraud schemes have become more invasive and more complex than robocalls - making them particularly hard to detect and block. As is the case for robocalls, regulatory frameworks are simply not keeping pace with the evolution of robotexts and AIT. 

Next year, the industry needs to collaborate on a strategy to thwart SMS fraud and AIT. For example, obligating control over domain name allocation, to prevent scammers from duplicitously adopting domain names. AI/ML is an important piece of the puzzle, but it is crucial that operators invest resources in training these models with the correct and most current data, to effectively spot network anomalies. Collaboration is also key: operators globally must share intelligence so that they learn from each other’s experiences. That said, preventative efforts will be obsolete until we have a regulatory framework that allows ML/analytics to access SMS content for fraud protection.

It is in the interest of the whole ecosystem that operators respond to this challenge and ensure that telco services remain secure and reliable. It’s urgent that trust is brought back into the telecom industry, or operators will risk losing customers.

Kristian Toivo, Executive Director, TIP

Confidence in the development of 5G OpenRAN has been building in 2023, with major vendors Ericsson and Nokia backing the technology and Vodafone committing to a large OpenRAN tender. But more could be done, and currently, the industry still lacks the confidence for widespread deployment. One of the major reasons for this is that OpenRAN requires hardware and software solutions from multiple vendors to seamlessly work together, but each with distinct performance parameters and interoperability requirements. Operators need the confidence that multi-vendor technology will seamlessly integrate.

In 2024, we can expect confidence to build as standardised product requirements and testing frameworks for different OpenRAN deployment scenarios will be developed. These frameworks, once certified, will enable operators to maintain consistency and reliability within the ecosystem, regardless of the vendors they use. This will lead to notable time, resource, and cost savings, and a faster rate of OpenRAN deployment in 2024 and beyond.

Sarah LaSelva 6G, Director of 6G, Keysight

6G will leverage many different bands and tools to meet the growing demands and expectations for cellular communications. The most challenging technical aspect is how to share spectrum. For example, in 6G, the upper mid-band (7-24 GHz) is already used by civilians and governments for meteorology, radio astronomy, and maritime radio navigation. Once wireless access is added, it will necessitate learning how to be good frequency citizens. In 2024, there will be a lot of research in this area to find a pathway forward.

Jurgen Hatheier, International CTO, Ciena

2023 has seen more attention on non-terrestrial networks (satellites) than ever before, highlighting the role of the technology in helping to close the digital divide and serving as backup connectivity when terrestrial networks are damaged.

Like every other wireless technology, satellites do have capacity constraints and cannot be used for large-scale coverage, especially not in dense areas. Power-hungry receiver stations and the high environmental impact of the satellites themselves need to be considered, particularly when considering the relatively short lifespan of these networks.

It would be an injustice not to call out the massive positive impact LEO satellites have on developing countries like those in sub-Saharan Africa where access to basic connectivity service has been made possible, allowing many to set up things like mobile bank accounts. In 2024, satellite deployments will continue at a high rate and adoption will remain high, but eventually, there will be a tipping point where the environmental debt will outweigh the benefits. In the meantime, we must continue to look at other solutions that can achieve the same rural connectivity while being kinder on the planet.

Derek Phillips, Group Managing Director, Clarus Networks Group

In 2023, low-earth orbit (LEO) satellites gained recognition and entered public awareness. Notable projects played a key part in this, including Clarus working with the UK Government to trial LEO in Shetland, with great media interest in the “broadband link from space”.

The prep work has now been done, with LEO emerging as the obvious future of connectivity. Into next year, we’ll see the technology rocket, replacing other rural or remote methods, with Clarus in discussions with the Scottish Government to see how LEO could work for more of Scotland’s hardest to reach places.

Energy, rail and emergency services are just a few of the industries that will see huge leaps in connectivity driven by LEO, removing connectivity as a bottleneck and transforming it into an enabler for the use of powerful new technologies, including artificial intelligence and remote monitoring.

Ann Heyse, Telco Solutions Manager, BICS

Despite a lack of 5G and IoT devices, as well as spectrum licence acquisition challenges, 2024 will see further expansion of mobile private networks across sectors, driven by increasing government support globally. The manufacturing sector is poised to dominate private 5G network deployment, but other industries will soon catch up, including healthcare, logistics, energy, utilities, transportation, and smart cities - with 140 active projects in Europe alone.

Geographically, countries like the U.S., China, Japan, Germany, and the U.K. will continue to lead the way, but across the board, private networks saw consistent growth in 2023, with reports indicating their presence in over 1,000 organisations across 70+ countries.

Regardless of how the chips fall geographically or industry-wise, the benefits of private networks will be enhanced significantly if we overcome the challenges of public/private roaming access. The industry is already making the right steps in facilitating seamless in/out roaming between private and public networks without the need for complex operator agreements - but we need to see more of this in 2024.

Jack Waland, Technical Programme Manager, The Scotland 5G Centre

The ‘5G in a box’ market is on the cusp of significant growth and is expected to skyrocket over the next 24 months.

The advancements made to Ofcom’s Shared Access Licensing, radio development and sat-com solutions have made it a much more accessible, consumer friendly and cost-effective option than what was previously available. Couple that with its attractive market value and it’s a golden ticket for organisations looking to introduce 5G solutions in their operation.

Getting the most out of their investment will be the number one priority for businesses. The functionality of 5G in a box allows them to dip their toe into the realm of 5G without the commitment of investing in expensive carrier class solutions

There are already huge offerings from major network operators and I don’t see that slowing down anytime soon, but what’s really interesting is seeing how the technology develops. The boxes seem to get smaller and lighter whilst increasing their compatibility, functionality and integration capability, so I’m looking forward to seeing how that evolves over the next 24 months or so.

Lee Myall, CEO, Neos Networks

The UK’s data centre market has always been London-centric. But next year, that will begin to change. Access to land and power is becoming increasingly constrained in London and surrounding areas. For example, properties in Slough, a popular spot for building data centres have gone up by 44% since 2019, and the Greater London Authority has told some developers there won’t be electrical capacity to build in certain areas of the city until 2035.

Yet data centres are vital to the UK’s digital growth. Critical services, the growth of 5G and the evolution of AI - all are reliant on having high-performance and readily available data centres. This will drive investment in new data facilities up the M1 to the North of England. From the West and hubs around Manchester and Liverpool and to the East around Tyneside, foreign direct investment into the region and an appetite to be closer to green-powered hubs in the Nordics; expect to see more and more investment here next year. This will be critical for the UK to achieve its digital ambitions.

Jurgen Hatheier, International CTO, Ciena

The COVID pandemic shone a light on the digital divide which hasn’t dimmed since. Progress has been made in many ways since then thanks to government stimulus projects, residential broadband investments, new innovative optical networking technologies, advancements in satellites and more. But we often relate the digital divide with access to broadband, and closing it therefore is about extending access to fast internet and thus a global jobs marketplace, content, information and so on.

This is only part of the problem, but access to affordable devices is another hurdle to overcome. While a £100 smartphone may seem a standard purchase for many of us, it exceeds the monthly income of billions of people, hence limiting their ability to connect and participate. A 5G or LEO connection won’t do you any good unless you can afford a suitable device to access those networks. Many companies in emerging countries have built their own budget phones or budget laptops to grant people access, but there is still a lot of progress to be made.

In 2024 the digital divide is going to shrink in countries with governments investing in infrastructure, devices are affordable and schools adopting digital education and relevant subjects into their curriculum.