Kostek, who serves as the president of the IEEE’s Aerospace and Electronics Systems Society, heeds his warning as the number of satellites in orbit is set to increase exponentially due to Starlink, Amazon and others deploying thousands of low earth orbit (LEO) satellites to provide connectivity solutions such as broadband, SMS and voice calls from space.
Many of these satellites have a short lifespan, (sometimes only five years) and making sure a robust plan is in place to remove them or extend their lifespan is essential, Kostek told Capacity.
Dish Networks received the $150,000 fine for its geostationary orbit (GEO) EchoStar-7 satellite. It was first launched in 2002 and following the end of its life was supposed to be moved a further 186 miles from the Earth’s surface. However, following a fuel loss it was only moved less than half of this distance.
The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) said the out of use satellite posed a threat to active satellites.
"As satellite operations become more prevalent and the space economy accelerates, we must be certain that operators comply with their commitments," FCC enforcement bureau chief Loyaan Egal said.
"This is a breakthrough settlement, making very clear the FCC has strong enforcement authority and capability to enforce its vitally important space debris rules."
Kostek believes this serves as a landmark moment in the regulation of space, noting that shortly after the fine was issued, the Biden administration proposed new powers for the Department of Commerce to regulate unmanned space vehicles.
What is Space Junk?
Space Junk could be anything from entire satellites that are out of commission, or small parts of them such as nuts and bolts that have broken off. Due to the high speeds they travel at, any collision could cause significant damage to a working satellite, and the more junk in space the higher the risk becomes.
NASA administrator, Senator Bill Nelson, said in an interview with the BBC in July that space junk was a "major problem", that has required the International Space Station to be moved out of the way of passing debris. Even something as small as a paint chip, when travelling at orbital speeds of 17,500 miles an hour could be fatal if it were to hit an astronaut on a space walk, he said.
How can we reduce the risks of space junk?
Currently, Kostek says, there is no formal “Air Traffic Control” for space. Defence organisations and the likes of NASA monitor satellites and can inform commercial operators of impending collisions, or else they are done bilaterally between operators operations teams.
However earlier in January, the US Office of Space Commerce awarded its first contracts for a private sector collision management project, moving responsibility away from the Department of Defence for the first time.
Amazon’s Kuiper constellation and China’s Guowang are set to add thousands of LEO satellites into orbit in the coming years, alongside the existing constellations of Starlink and OneWeb.
In Starlink’s latest "Semi- Annual Constellation Status Report", a regulatory filing its parent company SpaceX must submit to the FCC, it was revealed that 24,410 collision avoidance manoeuvres were made to avoid space debris and other satellites between June and December 2023.
This amounts to approximately six manoeuvres per individual satellite, and even if this ratio flatlines as the number of satellites exponentially increases, the numbers get astronomical.
SpaceX and Starlink alone could deploy up to 42,000 satellites, an almost 800% increase from today from one company alone.
Kostek says these numbers are concerning, and leading operators and governments across the world to push for closer collaboration.
He believes its likely other nations are to implement their own monitoring and response processes for the private sector in light of the risk, and a global body could be established.
As LEO satellites reach the end of their life, Kostek says the plan is for them to re-enter the earth’s atmosphere, burning them up, while satellites further away would use their last bit of fuel to be pushed further from the Earth, akin to Dish Network’s intention with its EchoStar-7.
But due to the relatively new deployment of LEO satellites, testing this concept at scale is yet to happen.
Furthermore, completely replacing end of life satellites is expensive and while distances are far enough apart right now, those that will remain in space could pose more of a threat in the future.
As such, there are private sector companies that are focusing attention on the removal of space junk, and others that are looking at extending the life of existing satellites by upgrading them or providing refuelling services.
Kostek says that companies operating in space are incentivised to support such developments, to ensure the longevity of their business and manage the risk space junk could pose to LEO constellations.
“It’s not an earthbound system, if something goes wrong in space, it’s very difficult to fix, so there will be a willingness to partner and collaborate,” he says.
Investing billions of dollars into space has commercial risk as well. “What happens if one of these constellations is not commercially viable and is abandoned?” Kostek asks.
There is precedent for this, Iridium’s ill-fated satellite phone business went bankrupt at the turn of the century, and its satellite’s remained in orbit but inactive for a number of years.
While they were eventually repurposed, they remained in orbit. Compared to the size of today's constellations, the Iridium one is tiny.
Far more inactive satellites in LEO orbit could pose a greater risk to collisions and access to further orbits for spacecraft attempting to pass them. The impact of a scenario like this is uncertain, but Kostek says that work to understand and mitigate the risk is required now.
Iridium was actually the victim of a satellite crash in 2009, showing that while unlikely, collisions are certainly possible.
The company has encountered something of a resurgence recently, in what is hopefully a good sign for the space economy in general, but planning for the worst is required in such a high-risk environment.
